The Connection
INVESTMENT STRATEGY
A Virtuous Cycle Takes Shape
by Joe Zidle, Chief Investment Strategist, Private Wealth Solutions
I keep a fun book on my desk: “Wrong: The Biggest Mistakes and Miscalculations Ever Made by People Who Should Have Known Better”. I browsed through it recently, seeking reassurance for my 2023 recession call. I take some solace in that last year presented a remarkable tale of economic resilience. Defying the looming shadow of rising interest rates, the economy didn’t merely stabilize—it accelerated.
In 2024, the debate about a hard, soft, or non-existent landing should reach a resolution. With real rates (adjusted for inflation) positive for about a year and the depletion of excess savings in household balance sheets, the economy’s now feeling the full impact of the Fed’s policies. Indicators such as the yield curve, Institute for Supply Management surveys, and Purchasing Managers Indices point towards a growth slowdown, the extent of which we should better understand by the second half.
We believe that 2024 could mark the end of the COVID-era recovery, with the U.S. economy emerging from a liquidity trap, a pivotal shift that not only redefines our current economic understanding but also alters our future expectations.
PRIVATE MARKET LENS
Insights from Blackstone Portfolio Companies
by Prakash Melwani, Global Chief Investment Officer, Private Equity
Based on Blackstone’s survey of 83 portfolio company CEOs, it appears that labor market pressures are easing and inflation is increasingly in the rear-view mirror.
GUEST COLUMN
Private Equity in a Changing Landscape
by Joseph Baratta, Global Head of Private Equity
Christopher James, Chief Operating Officer of Tactical Opportunities, Chairperson of Blackstone Private Equity Strategies (BXPE)
The opportunity set in private equity appears especially attractive in this market environment. Our focus is high-quality businesses that are growing faster than the overall economy, which is critical to driving strong returns.
FROM INSIGHTS TO PRACTICE
Challenging Times Require More Tools
by Anders Nielsen, Managing Director, Private Wealth Solutions
We believe that private assets are well suited for this type of environment, yet individual investors continue to have much lower allocations to them than their institutional counterparts. In our view, now is the right time for that to change.
The views expressed in this commentary are the personal views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Blackstone Inc. (together with its affiliates, “Blackstone”). The views expressed reflect the current views of the authors as of the date hereof, and neither the authors nor Blackstone undertake any responsibility to advise you of any changes in the views expressed herein.
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