Real Estate Investing at an Inflation Inflection Point
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Why could inflation be on its way?
An economic restart
Improving pandemic conditions, Private sector liquidity, pent-up consumer demand, and fiscal stimulus may combine to spur 2021 growth
Tighter markets
Coordinated factors combined with tight labor markets and supply chain imbalances could mean the highest levels of inflation in years1
Rates on the move
These dynamics may to continue to drive up long-term interest rates
Investors may want to consider shortening the duration of fixed income holdings and pivoting towards assets that could potentially hedge against or benefit from rising prices and related economic trends.
Figure 1: Inflation on the Rise in 2021

Source: Morningstar, annual inflation represented by US BLS CPI All Urban NSA, as of 12/31/2020. Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research, estimate for 2021 CPI growth, as of 3/20/21.
Private real estate income is a potential hedge to inflation
For the right assets, in the right markets, real estate historically has performed well in a rising-rate environment, particularly when economic growth is strong. Within the right sectors, real estate may provide cash flow yield and growth, with the potential downside protection that hard assets afford.2
Figure 2: Real Estate Income and Inflation Since 1995
(Indexed 1995=100)

As of December 31, 2019. Green Street Advisors, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Represents Blackstone Real Estate’s view of the current market environment as of the date appearing in this material only. There can be no assurance that the trends described herein will continue or not reverse. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Net operating income (NOI) growth represents the average NOI growth by year across the apartment, industrial, mall, office and strip retail sectors. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in the prices paid by urban consumers for a representative basket of goods and services. NOI may not be correlated to or continue to keep pace with inflation.
- Bloomberg consensus forecasts, as of 3/22/21.
- Green Street Advisors, as of 3/1/21. Major sectors include apartments, industrial, mall, office, and strip centers. Past performance is not indicative of future results. There is no guarantee that any of these trends will continue or will not reverse. There is no guarantee that any risk can be mitigated in whole or in part.
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